Honesty Corner's 5 Truths: Vol. 13

Looks like the Atlanta Hawks have hit adversity in the name of a Hawks injury, but So, it's time to read the disclaimer and then - let's go...

Disclaimer: As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last.  Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building). 

Truth 1. Al Horford's injury has ZERO impact on the Hawks playoff outcome.

And by no impact I mean - as long as everyone else stays relatively healthy (T-Mc & Marvin) - that the Hawks are still one of the top 8 teams in the conference.  For those who panicked when Al went down, let me help everyone out. The Hawks are not a lottery level basketball team.  The Hawks are not a contender for the NBA title. So, what happened when Al Horford was injured? Ummmmmm, nothing. Sure, we may not have a weapon that we are accustomed to having, but last year - we were one of the remaining 8 teams without point guard consistency, no All Star level production from the center or shooting guard, and Marvin Williams playing behind ...uh, some Wilkins fellow.  So, what is it that I'm saying?  That have a lot of talent. What we don't have is an efficient, cohesive use of all of those talents (not to mention experience, leadership and an identity for those talents). So, before this is confused as Al Horford hate, it's not. I'll definitely stump for Al's defense and his ability to use his few touches to score points, but despite popular belief - he's no more a leader than Joe Johnson is. So, we're not going to miss anything other than production and depth and at the level that he's performed this season - we can approximate it elsewhere.  I'll reserve my Al Horford is a souped up Chuck Hayes theory for another day. So, I simply say that there are only 4 teams with 2 All Star level talents to go along with some NBA level talent on the bench (though the jury is still out on Jannero Pargo). Maybe it would help if I remind everyone of who is left in the Eastern Conference. Here's who needs us to lose 2 more starters to have a chance at our spot - the Pistons, Wizards, Bobcats, Cavaliers, Raptors, and Nets.  So, that leaves 9 teams.  Which means only Milwaukee, Boston, and New York have a chance at beating out the Hawks for that 8th spot.  Does anyone think that's going to happen? If you do, I have some land to sell. So, I repeat - Al Horford is definitely a piece we want back for the playoffs, rusty or not.  But any thought that we need to lower playoff expectations (and shame on Larry "No Excuses" Drew for saying anything other than next man up) is ludicrous.   

Truth 2. Ivan Johnson could save Larry Drew (and Rick Sund).
 

Listen, I have made it VERY clear that I have no confidence in Larry Drew or Rick Sund. I'm not sure if that'll change any time soon (particularly after sitting behind the bench vs. the Raptors last week - he definitely handles Zaza and Teague MUCH differently than anyone else on the team), but the decision to add Ivan Johnson to the rotation could be a season saver.  The only way you can make up for bad drafting decisions is to pick up diamonds in the rough. Signing a player like Wes Matthews can do wonders for your team.  In this case, you can easily forgive the mistake of Pape Sy and Keith Benson if you keep an Ivan Johnson and he actually helps you win a game or two.  The Hawks have needed another enforcer and it looks like they found one in Ivan.  He'll never cost you more than the minimum and he's still going to contribute.  This would normally be a squandered signing, but Drew is actually playing him through his inexperience and mistakes.  I will keep my eye on this upon Al's possible return and other players' return to health. 

Truth 3. Jason Collins should never start (not even vs. Dwight Howard).

I hate that I have to say this, but since Drew seemingly likes Jason Collins - I must. Jason Collins is done.  He's not worth a roster spot unless you think you have to go through Dwight Howard to win a title.  But since you don't - you would rather just have a player that can do something more than play one on one defense vs. Dwight Howard. If you are afforded the luxury to have him, fine - but I don't care what your thoughts are about Zaza Pachulia (and I happen to think he's a fairly good backup center, emphasis on backup) - he's light years better than Jason Collins. Shoots better, rebounds better, passes better and is tougher and more intimidating.  Jason Collins is none of those things and if he comes into the game as anything other a backup - it sends a signal that he just has a problem with Zaza. And if you heard the names he called Drew vs. the Raptors - there is a problem brewing and if I'm him - I don't blame him.  Drew has never shown Zaza the respect he deserves.  Let's hope that the Horford injury will force Drew to give Zaza the grudging respect he's having to give Jeff Teague.  And if he needs a big body on the 2nd string - his name is undersized Ivan Johnson.

Truth 4. Larry Drew needs a technical.

I've been to probably 25-30 games a year since Philips Arena opened.  The Toronto game was probably the worst officiated game that I've ever witnessed up close.  There were a number of fouls that were not called on Jeff Teague, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams.  The Raptors were given every ticky-tack call and even ones that weren't even fouls.  At one point, Jeff Teague was given a technical foul for defending himself against a player who pushed him and was yakking with him. In the huddle, guess who's getting cussed out - Jeff Teague.  Not only that - Josh Smith, who certainly has gotten technicals and never misses a chance to give an official an earful - was not talked to on ANY timeouts for any reason.  Why is this being outlined?  Because Larry Drew needs to learn how to stick up for his guys. On several occasions, I watched Drew passively suggest that maybe we could possibly get a call (if the officials felt so inclined). Dammit, to get respect, sometimes - you gotta demand it.  Sometimes, you just have to send officials a signal that your team will not be disrespected, esp. not at home on MLK Day.  You have to say - we want equal rights because Bro. Martin said it should be so.  And guess what - your team would respect you because of it. Not only that, it would benefit the team for that to happen. I certainly can't imagine that the Hawks are getting the benefit of any doubt from officials and that must change today.

Truth 5. 2012 Off-season Planning can't wait for 2012 Playoff Results.

The Hawks need more talent to win a title (and a coach, GM, and owners) and to get more talent - they need to determine who to trade between Horford and Josh Smith, whether it's possible to get $20M/yr production from Joe Johnson (they can't), whether Marvin can be showcased enough to make him trade-able, and how to get cap room and/or draft picks. Here's what we know - that this is the deepest draft in the last 5-10 years, there are some great players who will be available in the off-season, and the Hawks are stuck in cap/draft limbo.  Too capped to get a great player and too good to get a real difference maker.  I know everyone wants to wait to see how far this team can go. Turn away if you aren't ready (SPOILER ALERT) - we won't (Al or not) win a title this year.  So, we need to prepare for the off-season now.  What does that mean - Kirk Hinrich is expendable and come trade deadline...everyone needs to be on the table. Don't get fooled into thinking anything else, my fellow Hawks fans or else we'll be at 2012-2013 with the same ceiling we've had for the past 3 years and with no way to change it. 

Next week, we'll discuss - what's wrong with the fans? why Al Horford fans confuse important with best? why Josh overtake Joe and Al as our leader in 2012?  Until then, that's this week's 5 Truths....agree or disagree if you must, but if it's the Honesty Corner, then it can't be lies.  See you in the comments...

Honesty Corner's 5 Truths: Vol. 12

We're back and it's time to provide our signature weekly article about our fair Hawks.  Since everyone and their mama wants to do a game recap about the Hawks these days, it's up to me to say what everyone says they want, but aren't always ready to hear (as in don't tell your significant other how they REALLY look in those jeans). So, it's time to read the disclaimer and then - let's go...

Disclaimer: As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last.  Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building). 

Truth 1. Jeff Teague is the #1 key to this season (like he was last season).

Everyone knows that I created the Jeff Teague Fan Club, then built a bus with my blog boo, CoCo, and we rode around town for a full year getting eggs and bird droppings all over it before we finally started getting the rest of the Hawk fans to jump onboard.  The bus is now on blocks because it's too many folks claiming how much they love Jeff Teague and why he should have been starting since he was at Wake Forest. It's so bad that former Peachtree Hoops blogger, Drew, retired after being so famously wrong about Mike Bibby's value to the Hawks (or at least that's how I recall it). And yet, it's still true that the Hawks will not be a factor in the playoffs in a point guard driven league without Jeff Teague being a major cog on this team.  He can potentially be the 3rd most important player for this team (yes, I believe he can mean more than Al Horford) and he's already pushing to be the difference between another uninspired run through the playoffs or serving notice that the Hawks should be respected like the rest of the Eastern Conference contenders.  

Truth 2. Larry Drew doesn't trust Marvin Williams to close basketball games.
 

Has Marvin done anything to not trust him to be a great contributor throughout the game. I could have missed that, but the lack of faith is puzzling since Marvin has played better than I've ever seen.  This is evidenced by how quickly Marvin is pulled and how long it takes to get him back in the game.  His 4th quarter minutes are uh...lacking.  Last year, that was acceptable (desirable even), but this isn't last year. This year, he has showed that he actually could make a mockery of my 3 year plea to make him our 6th man. The sample size is small, but so far - Marvin Williams and crunch time minutes are not a mix.

Truth 3. If the bench gets any better, it's time to trade Kirk Hinrich.

This is probably a good time to mention that Jamal Crawford is not going to be missed.  Watching players who can do more than just hit baskets will be a welcome sight and I honestly believe that by All Star weekend - we'll wonder why we ever fell in love Jamal. The bench so far is much more versatile and complete early this season.  McGrady has been great. Zaza has been steady. V-Rad has shown flashes. Pargo and Green can't get any worse (on knees praying), so there's room for growth.  We could even see if Donald Sloan or Ivan Johnson actually have reason to be played this season. And if that's the case, Kirk Hinrich (like Jamal Crawford) makes too much money to keep him, so it's much more valuable to the franchise to either trade him for a big man or for a cheaper alternative and draft picks in what is projected to be the deepest draft in the last 5 years. So, that we're clear - I like Kirk Hinrich, but if you aren't going to go over the luxury tax, then every player must be evaluated based on their production to salary ratio and he makes too much to be a backup.  C'mon bench - show Kirk the door.

Truth 4. Josh Smith is regressing & Al Horford has become Chuck Hayes good (these are not compliments).

Pains me to say this, but Josh is our most talented player and yet, he's playing worse than I've ever seen him. It's like his basketball IQ has regressed on the offensive end more than ever.  More jump shots, more dribbling on the break. It's just maddening, but what's just as maddening is watching Al Horford turn into Chuck Hayes on the offensive end of the court.  Short of running past centers - I am not sure if we're watching the same games, but Horford has just become a really solid guy who we all want to be some sort of star.  Calling him an All Star just inflates our expectations of Al, but in reality - expecting him to put up a 20-10 when it's needed is becoming a fading pipe dream. As I said while watching him tonight, if you have Ronnie Brewer on your hip and you can't take him into the paint and abuse him, then PROBLEMA, Senor Horford! 

Truth 5. Nobody turns a fast break into a jump shot like the Hawks.

I'm not sure if I'm the only person who sees this as a problem, but I can't for the life of me fathom why we shoot jump shots on at least half of our transition opportunities.  I mean if you're passing them to Ray Allen, fine.  To Kevin Martin or Stephen Curry or any dead eye shooter..ok! But I think we all know that there's no one we're trusting with a stop and pop, so can we just increase the odds of the layup or at a minimum the foul and show why running is a good thing for this squad.

And with that note, that's this week's 5 Truths....agree or disagree if you must, but if it's the Honesty Corner, then it can't be lies.  See you in the comments...

Hawk Str8Talk Offseason Overview & Season Preview 2011-2012

It's time for some Str8Talk.  After flirting with the end of the blog (by virtue of my pledge that I would quit blogging if the Hawks defeated the Bulls in last year's playoffs), it's time to get back to blogging.  As we go into our 4th year, I'm sure my tens of fans have asked - why the lack of blogs this offseason.  Well, two things happened - there was this thing called the lockout, which was really not about principles but was simply a money grab for the owners so they could continue to run the league with the same issues of competitive balance at play (see Paul, Chris & Howard, Dwight) and there ALSO was this thing that happened called - the Hawks are NOT sold. The first muted my desire to blog, the second KILLED it...

Yes, this was a crushing blow for us here at Hawk Str8Talk HQ.  You've seen our disclaimer since the start of this blog (and if you haven't - here it is - Disclaimer:  As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last.  Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building)) and we thought we had permanently retired it at the sight of Mr. Alex Mereulo. But then, in true Hawks ownership fashion and like Sugar Ray Leonard, someone's money was kinda funny and well, long story short - the disclaimer is un-retired and is back.  For those who are new to this blog, then you only need to read this and this to understand why the disclaimer is necessary.  We'll discuss these further below, but to be clear - all critical thinking starts at the top and trickles down from there.  So, with that, we needed a minute to ready for the season, but just like last year - 6 days in, we're ready to go.  So, let's end 2011 with a kickoff for Hawk Str8Talk...like last year, the desire to do game recaps is over, but we will continue to do a weekly article here and on Peachtree Hoops called Honesty Corner's 5 Truths - where we put the week's 5 most important observations.  Also, we will talk about things off the beaten path (like Al Horford's marriage - scandalous stuff indeed) and what's happening in Hawk land behind the scenes.  If you want to get our musings during the games, you can check me out at @hawkstr8talk on Twitter.  So, with no further ado, it's time to get to the thoughts and predictions where we promise - all predictions wrong or this blog costs you more than free.  

Before we delve into the season,  let's talk about the value of our blog in relation (not instead of) to our Hawks blog brethren - who you can check on here here and here and here along with my Hawks blog boo here. There are some things that you need to be aware of:

• This blog is all about winning championships. So, you can read here how we could win the battle and lose the war.  This is about critical thinking our way to a NBA championship.  Yes, on game day, I'm cheering my HEART out for the Hawks, but the goal of the BLOG is to report on all things related to how the hell do we win a title?  Period.  Go to our other brethren if you want a viewpoint that's more cheering no matter what the facts may say (Note: that's not meant as a slight to other blogs, just to say that that's my only true angle - winning a title).
• This blog is about talking the things that other blogs don't...like - how did the dance team do?  where groupies in full force for the big games? what is happening in the front office?  why you should go to Miami for a road trip once a year? Etc, etc, etc...
• This blog is lastly about fun - so keep your hate confined to Tea Party rallies.  Here is where sanity reigns and critical debate is welcome as long as you know how to keep your feelings in check.

As we did the last 3 years, it's time to give our review of the coach and the team and its prospects.  As well as our (drum roll please) best case and worst case predictions along with our true prediction for 2011-2012. One last note - we reserve the right to change our prediction as things change. We'll identify when that happens and make adjustments as necessary.  Now, off to the analysis:

Offseason Additions/Subtractions:

Let's start with the subtractions - Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, and Etan Thomas will not be missed one iota. Damien Wilkins was replaceable while providing some negligible value last year. This leaves us with Pape Sy and Jamal Crawford. It's unfortunate that we have to use a seemingly average to below average player to prove a point, but Pape Sy is just another example of either the Hawks inability to develop talent or their inability to scout players.  In either (or both), the waiving of a player that you bought out of his contract just last year should be a significant demerit against the Rick Sund regime.  For me, it's both.  A team with the limited budget that the Hawks have can't invest in a player that you don't get a chance to validate one way or the other.  This more than a concern that we're missing out on hidden gems is the problem with our management and the coaching team's synergy in selecting players  that will aid in our pursuit of a title.  The franchise that doesn't give a reasonable chance to Jordan Crawford, Keith Benson, and now Pape Sy.  Not to mention past casualties Acie Law IV, Salim Stoudamire, Solomon Jones, Sergiy Gladyr, and Cenk Aykol, Oh, and did I forget to mention Jeff Teague (we'll come back to him later).  The point is simply that a team with razor thin margins for adding talent (via draft and veterans signed at the minimum) cannot be cavalier about the process of adding talent nor acquiring assets (draft picks, trade exceptions) that will move the franchise forward.  After saying all that, Pape Sy and Keith Benson weren't good, never were, so let's move on.

This brings us to Jamal Crawford. There was a lot of chatter about whether or not to bring back Jamal Crawford and so that I don't spend a lot of time on this - here's a truth that many people still haven't grasped and that's that - Jamal Crawford was never a great acquisition for this franchise. For $18M over 2 years, getting highlights and scoring is not enough.  You can compare him to Acie Law IV and Craig (can't call him Speedy) Claxton, but I'd prefer to compare him to what else other teams would have attempted to get for $9M a year in their place.  So, instead of trading for a luxury piece vs. a true need, I've said this since the trade and I maintain that Jamal Crawford (much like Kirk Hinrich) are not players you can retain at the price tag we are paying when you have other glaring needs.  It was tolerable during his 6th Man of the Year season, but last year - a $9M price tag for a backup shooting guard who doesn't do anything other than score (esp. at less than an elite level) - Jamal Crawford should have been on the trading block from offseason through the trading deadline.  Unfortunately, our management and coaching staff looked at him as a core component instead of the enhanced Eddie House luxury piece to a puzzle that any other championship level team would view Jamal as.  To be clear, I like Jamal Crawford as a person, but I've maintained for 2 years that he's a flashy guy who exhibits traits that belie why his previous teams have never made the playoffs.  Additionally, there are players for a cheaper price that could put up similar numbers if all you asked him to do was come in and score the ball.  The whole thing was always illogical to have $30M invested in the shooting guard position for a combo that doesn't include Jordan, Wade, etc.  So, in true Hawks fashion, we never looked to get an asset back from a player we certainly weren't going to be able to resign from the moment we re-signed Joe Johnson.  Like Mike Woodson, I suspect that we'll look back and say - hmmm, why isn't he setting the world on fire the way we thought he was (for those who believe that) in his post-Hawks career?  (Note: I'm still waiting for the first article blasting the Hawks for letting Jamal Crawford go.)

Enough of looking backward, let's go forward and say that we added some players...Tracy McGrady, Jannero Pargo, Donald Sloan, Willie Green, Jerry Stackhouse, Ivan Johnson, and Vladimir Radmanovic. We know that all of these guys are coming in for the absolute minimum you can pay a player, so let's separate the gold from the fool's version. Here's what you hope happens - Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic are good additions that you hope don't fall victim to the insane schedule this year. Whether they have anything left in the tank by the (spoiler alert) playoffs will determine what round this team bows out of.  Jannero Pargo and Willie Green probably shouldn't be on the team (not at the expense of Pape Sy or Wanamaker in my mind), but we know that developing talent is ..oh, see my rant above - so let's just hope that their veteran-ness provides some value or their terrible-ness keeps Teague and Hinrich on the court more often that not. Jerry Stackhouse is what we hoped Josh Powell would be last year..a veteran leader who provides locker room leadership.  Anyone who watched the Hawks last year, there was not much leadership, so let's hope that Stackhouse can be that guy - or else he needs to be cut.  Finally, Ivan Johnson and Donald Sloan are this season's sit on the bench guys and they may deserve to be, but let's hope that when the schedule is insane and players are in foul trouble or injured that opportunities to prove their worth are offered to these guys (or in Pargo's case - simply letting Sloan play could just be the best thing to do no matter what). 

Overall, the additions are a net positive over last year's group at first glance (Jamal Crawford included), but we'll see if that lasts since we know that one or two of these guys will be waived during the season to keep the team under the tax and who knows how the injury front will impact us. So, I congratulate Rick Sund on signing players who can contribute this year while I continue to give him the side eye for not being able to make the hard decisions to carve out cap room and draft picks for use this year and in anticipation of next season's free agent pool.

Coaching:
I was a very vocal dissenting voice in selecting Larry Drew as our coach.  Never say that I'm not consistent when I say - I still don't believe in Larry Drew.  I give him credit for his use of Jason Collins in last year's playoff series vs. the Orlando Magic.  That's about the only thing I can say was A+ work.  When I juxtapose that with his decision to sit Jeff Teague long enough that we gave away our Jamal Crawford replacement AND a draft pick (hello Chris Singleton or even Norris Cole) searching for what was sitting on our bench at (wait for it) a higher price tag than the other guy we shouldn't have been paying (Mike Bibby anyone?) as much as we were, then the Jason Collins move doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy.  In fact, that decision alone makes me angry.  Every time I watch Jeff Teague do something that none of our other guards can do - I say to myself how can the point guard developing Larry Drew not see what my limited basketball knowledge seems to see. So, call me biased, but something drastic will have to happen to change the opinion that this is NOT the coach for the future.

What drastic thing could happen - well, glad you asked...they are going to be things that aren't foreign to many Hawks fans (and some that may). They are:

• Not allowing Josh Smith to shoot jump shots without his ass hitting the pine
• Giving Jeff Teague the freedom to run the offense and allowing him to make mistakes without pulling him like the rest of the starters.
• Never starting Kirk Hinrich (unless it's as a SG and Joe Johnson as a SF or as a result of an injury).
• Selecting Al Horford as your ONE and ONLY captain.
• Retiring the Horford Treatment (a la 2 fouls and you sit for the half).
• Making Marvin Williams your 6th Man (my request for the past 3 seasons)
• Putting an end to the Hawks proclivity to turn transition opportunities into jump shots (mostly due to forwards and centers trying to run the break)

These are things that would move the needle in terms of putting a stamp on this team's identity and showing that we are more disciplined and focused on the things that win championships.  The sooner he recognizes that this team's ability to win a title is tied to defense, depth, and Jeff Teague's development - the better. Until then, I'm not a believer.

Starters:
This season I'll only make some statements in the form of bulleted items: 

• Bottom line, Jeff Teague is the far and away X factor for this team.  It can be argued that there's some improvement to be pulled from Joe, Josh, Al, and Marvin, but I prefer to think that those guys are who they are within some standard deviation. I'm not expecting them to do much different this year than last year (unless of course, you move Marvin to the 6th Man role), but as the number one Teague fan (see here and here) and as seemingly the only sane voice in the Hawks blogosphere in Teague's rookie season who called for him to start THEN - it's beyond obvious that having a penetrating guard who can finish at the rim AND defend other point guards credibly is the key to giving this team a new look and more varied options offensively and defensively. He is more and more becoming the guy I said he could possibly be and that's...Rajon Rondo. (Note: It's also fair that I'm going to be biased about this all season long because it validates maybe the best call I've made since I drafted LaDainian Tomlinson his rookie year in my keeper football fantasy draft.)
• As for the rest of the team, they are who they are.  Hopefully, we'll decide to trade Josh or Al and get a center (Howard anyone?) and move toward pushing toward a title, but until then - let's just see whether Joe can put up a $20M worthy season, Marvin's back lets him get to making a better defensive contribution and open jump shots and that Al and Josh do what they do BEST ALL THE TIME.

Bench:
I mentioned much about them in my offseason piece, so I'll simply say that if we don't have to use Jason Collins over Zaza Pachulia, then this season is success. I'm not sure why he's not considered a part of the core, but Zaza is a 2nd team beast and he should be utilized as such. Done and done.  

Intangibles:

I'm not really sure what to make of the Hawks being full of veterans that we know aren't going to be here next year, but we will have to just see if T-Mc and V-Rod can provide some significant value to go along with Zaza and Hinrich.  While I have serious reservations about the ability of this team to go past the 2nd round, I can say that as long as Teague is leading this team - I have hope that we will compete differently than ever.  We still don't have any championship leaders or toughness, but...in Teague I trust.

Last note - there have been recent discussions about trading for Dwight Howard.  Short of them saying we want your starting 5 and your next 3 years worth of draft picks - my answer is DO IT! Yes, it's a risk, but if you're trying to win a title - you will do it with Dwight Howard more than with Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, etc.  So, doesn't matter the package - just do it (well, it does, but I'm saying that a reasonable offer even one more weighted to the Magic is ok with me), then figure out how to keep him in town.  Probably too much to ask of this ownership and management, but I must admit that if the conversations are even being had, then KUDOS.  Bout time we're in the discussions for elite talent.

Ok, you had to read through all of that just to get to my predictions, so here they go:

Best Case Prediction - 44-22 (3rd in Eastern Conference)
Worst Case Prediction - 31-35 (9th in Eastern Conference)
My Prediction - 38-28 (5th in Eastern Conference) and a 1st round playoff exit 

Simply put, at our healthiest, we are a good team with a puncher's chance, but I can't overlook the fact that the schedule is crazy and injuries and overuse happen, so we can't believe that no one is going to get hurt and that these old veterans won't be shells of their selves by season's end and with little evidence from past years that we'll develop our players for that circumstance - we have to believe that we'll hit a stretch where we lose games we shouldn't that will lead us to the 5th seed (Miami and Chicago are easy - I'm fearful that New York and my darkhorse, Indiana may jump up over us).

So, what do you guys think? Leave your predictions in the comments and we'll see you at the Highlight Factory!!!

Operation Championship?: The Hawks 2010-2011 Season

It's certainly WELL overdue, but it's about that time that we do our end of season review of our Atlanta Hawks.  Unlike most blogs that do these things, the point here is - what is moving us toward or away from a NBA title from my POV. Normally, the next thing I would say is read this disclaimer:

Disclaimer:  As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last.  Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building).

This disclaimer leads us to the first of the GOOD things that happened this year

Good #1: New Ownership Means New Disclaimer

This is actually good #1, #2, and #3.  It can't be expressed how poorly the Atlanta Spirit Group have run this organization.  Lawsuits; spending money lavishly on players who didn't deserve it; not spending money on scouting, coaching, the other roster spaces, D League, etc.; not treating the employees well; not being fan friendly; and the list goes on (tops on my fan list - the lack of plastic dipping cups for ketchup).  Bottom line, this tenure has not been a good one. For those who say - well, we did go from assy to classy. Well, I offer to you that the Clippers have made the playoffs in our lifetime - that doesn't make Donald Sterling less than a terrible owner (and universally regarded scumbag).  The fact that he has obtained Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon from all that ineptitude will probably result in an uptick in wins.  Same thing applies here. We've long said that ASG (nor Mike Woodson) should be given an outsized amount of credit for things that they did for this franchise.  Yes, they didn't completely mute the forward progress, but they certainly didn't aid the long term (or sustained) progression to excellence.  

So, in enters - ALEX MERUELO (my new BFF) to swoop in and save the day. Let me start this off by saying that 1) he could be worse than ASG and 2) he could fire all my friends in the Hawks organization and I would hate that, but as I ALWAYS - if you're not making moves to push every level of your organization to be excellent (and giving them the tools to do so), then you're regressing. I hope this gives the organization a reset that says - we will only accept top notch candidates for GM, Head Coach, Assistant Coach, Scouts, etc. So, the greater good must always be at the forefront.  Hopefully, this will hit the reset button on Atlanta as a prime location for talent (on and off the court).  [Note: I'm reserving my Los Hawks (or Halocones) and Hispanic communiques for later, but uh... can you say more Latina Dancers and Groupies? #WINNING]

Good #4: Jeff Teague's Playoff Run

It would not be a stretch to say that the most exciting thing we saw all season was Jeff Teague going toe to toe with Derrick Rose (and not getting ANY sort of respect from the officials).  Anyone who has EVER read a HawkStr8Talk blog regarding our point guard play knows 2 things - 1) two way play is valued at a premium and 2) player development at the point guard is respected almost everywhere except ..Atlanta (or the Mike Woodson coaching tree), so starting with Acie Law IV (who admittedly never may have been anything more than a backup or quite possibly a poor man's Mike Conley) and extending throughout the Jeff Teague era - the coaching staff has never made an attempt to develop a player they didn't have to (see Smith, Josh; Childress, Josh; Williams, Marvin; Horford, Al). As a result, cheap talent has never been mined for any appreciable amount of time. It's not my lot in life to determine who will shine and who will suck, but it is rarely revealed solely in practice what value a player with talent can provide your team.  

ENTER Jeff Teague - the guy I've been touting as the guy who should have been our point guard post All Star break of his rookie seasaon.  Last year, it was apparent that Mike Bibby should only serve to mentor and back up Teague and that any bumps should simply be weathered.  There were times when I thought I might be wrong to show faith in the old chap, but the Portland game essentially sealed any doubt I had about his talent AND his potential impact on the team. The treatment he's received is still inexplicable to me.  Not one analysis has provided me a reason for why Jeff Teague had 12 DNPs last year - TWELVE!!!!!! And so, it was with the glee of a fantasy football player who select Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster deep in back to back drafts - that I watched Jeff Teague's playoff run. Simply put, he was the best Hawk to play in the playoffs. Every time he came off the court - the gaping hole in defensive pressure and penetrating ability was palpable.  You can't say that for any player during the playoff run where you were actually afraid that he was going to leave the court and were yelling for the coach to put him back in. He was THAT good (and would have been better if they called the 7-8 fouls I saw him taking in the lane). I can't promise that he'll start for the Hawks next season because I don't know why he didn't before, but I can say that I hope that the Alex Meruelo owned Hawks won't tolerate anything less.  

Good #5: 2 All Stars & 1 All NBA Nod

I'll get to the other side of this coin (called the paper dragon this represents), but deservedly or not - we had 2 All Stars, 1 other possible All Star, and an All NBA nod. It shouldn't be taken lightly. So, thanks for the production that resulted in it. Joe Johnson and Al Horford, hats off to you.  

Good #6: Damien Wilkins

We are reaching here, but when you take a guy off the scrap heap and he pushes your #2 draft pick and recently minted, compensated small forward for his playing time. You are winning.  Maybe not championship level winning, but the takeaway that should come from this is that it can be done.  Sund, yes - you can do more of that and less of the signings that yield us Joe Smith, Etan Thomas, Josh Powell, et al.

And now, it brings us to (Bill Simmons-esque blog length) the bad that was the Atlanta Hawks season. Let's just the disclaimer side out of the way

Bad #1: The GM and Coach Still Are Subpar (Pending Meruelo Scrutiny)

I certainly won't budge on my stance that the Damian Wilkins signing and the signings of Horford & Josh Smith at reasonable prices are the best things that have happened in the Sund administration.  I know you want me to add Jamal Crawford, but I won't - I don't think taking on that salary was worth it if we could have gotten other more needed pieces OR simply just let the money roll off the books for a better position to make deals during the talent-rich summer of 2010.  I've always seen Jamal as a one trick pony that if you don't get that trick - he's useless.  His two years while entertaining in stretches did nothing to move this organization toward a title. 

So, that really only leads me to the coach to come up with a defense for.  And when I squint, I can give you the dispensing of the switching at every opportunity as a positive, but when balanced against the Jamal Crawford as point guard, the highly egregious Jeff Teague behind Mike Bibby situation, the continued existence of the 2 foul and sit rule, the lack of playing time for Jordan Crawford, and the regression of Marvin Williams (oh the lack of media savvy, suit selection, and inability to go bat sh*& when your team is being disrespected or is disrespecting you by giving up.) The Larry Drew era so far has been defined in my eyes by the exchange with Zaza Pachulia, who is arguably your hardest worker and gets yanked and blessed out in public because he took a 16ft jumper in a 30 point blowout.  Forgetting the simple fact that your favorite players have been shooting ill advised shots ALL SEASON LONG in much more important winnable games than this one.  If that's when you are determining that you need to take a stand, you sir no longer deserve to be the coach of the Atlanta Hawks. I didn't want him to be selected in the first place and nothing save a decision to play Dwight Howard straight up has changed that stance.  In a nutshell, GM Sund and Coach Drew are not leading this team to a title, so let's end the charade and move on to bigger and better things.


Bad #2: Trading The Wrong Crawford

Say word, L - you wanted to trade Crawford, not Crawford. Damn straight.  Again, Jordan Crawford may not be the answer to replacing Jamal Crawford, but if you ask me - he's younger, cheaper, and has a penchant for passing, rebounding, and faking defensive desire in ways you only dream of.  For that, I'm willing to roll the dice.  For $10M+, you must do more than shooting well in spurts.  This again is why Bad #1 hurts so much.  Sund is playing a one trick pony $10M and yet, will give up on talent and a shorter contract to get another (should be) backup point/combo guard with a longer contract. It's not that the economic model is bad in the NBA, it's that teams make stupid decisions with the money that's spent. You can argue that Jordan Crawford may never pan out, but at the cost he commanded - it was well worth the gamble to explore it further.


So, yes - the move to be made was - Jamal Crawford for Kirk Hinrich OR something of that nature.  That was where our backup/starting center or our small forward or defensive specialist talent was supposed to come from.

So, that really only leads me to the coach to come up with a defense for.  And when I squint, I can give you the dispensing of the switching at every opportunity as a positive, but when balanced against the Jamal Crawford as point guard, the highly egregious Jeff Teague behind Mike Bibby situation, the continued existence of the 2 foul and sit rule, the lack of playing time for Jordan Crawford, and the regression of Marvin Williams (oh the lack of media savvy, suit selection, and inability to go bat sh*& when your team is being disrespected or is disrespecting you by giving up.) The Larry Drew era so far has been defined in my eyes by the exchange with Zaza Pachulia, who is arguably your hardest worker and gets yanked and blessed out in public because he took a 16ft jumper in a 30 point blowout.  Forgetting the simple fact that your favorite players have been shooting ill advised shots ALL SEASON LONG in much more important winnable games than this one.  If that's when you are determining that you need to take a stand, you sir no longer deserve to be the coach of the Atlanta Hawks. I didn't want him to be selected in the first place and nothing save a decision to play Dwight Howard straight up has changed that stance.  In a nutshell, GM Sund and Coach Drew are not leading this team to a title, so let's end the charade and move on to bigger and better things.

Bad #3: Joe Johnson's Season


Simply put, Joe Johnson didn't have a great season. He didn't really even have a good season. It was somewhere between average and good.  Of course, his usage produced numbers (and that yielded him another All Star berth - this one much more on reputation and lack of other shooting guard options vs. undebatable excellence). But I have watched all of these seasons with Joe Johnson and the first 3 were full of evidence of Joe Johnson's talent.  These last 2 years have been a mixed bag.  Coming off of one good season, unfortunately, yielded the largest contract in the NBA last off-season.  It's normally a bad practice to pay a premium for a noticeable decline in play. This brings us to this year's performance. Sure, there were some injury concerns and there was a change in offensive philosophy. That said, the most disturbing thing of the past 2 seasons is that we haven't really seen a DOMINANT basketball player in Joe Johnson. Forget the contract. He's just not making the difference that he MUST make to win a title and then there's the contract. Seriously, I've seen Nate Robinson dominate almost as many games as Joe Johnson since 2009.


That is a problem. That is my litmus test.  If you can't win some games all by yourself (injury/offensive philosophy/double team be damned), then we don't need you. Not at $20M per...and therefore, we need a buyer. Not sure if there is one, but it's almost at showcase him proportions where you have to offer him after any hot week, month, etc to get that contract off the books.  For those who say, but who do you get to replace him and does that mean we win as many games? I simply say - being hamstrung by a player that can't win you games in the playoffs means you don't need that player (if you want to win a title).


Bad #4: Al & Josh's Power Forward Conundrum


We still haven't figured this out. Listen, we have 2 power forwards on our team. They play best as power forwards and so, it means you pick one - you trade the other if you can get fair value and you move on to finding a balanced roster that can grow into a championship level team.  Do you want the steady, hard working leadership type OR do you want the enigmatic, but ultra talented wonderkid?  Personally, it's simple - whoever gets the best value back.  That's it.  I have no allegiance to either. Al doesn't have a low post game and he shrank noticeably in the 2011 Playoffs (Joahkim Noah, seriously, AL?). Josh can take over a game, but unfortunately has a propensity to spend 30% of his time doing things he's only average doing vs. the 70% of the time doing the things he is sublime at.  So, bottom line, the new GM must solve this.  The sooner, the better.


Bad #5: Marvin's Disappearance


I really don't have an analysis or words for this. It's actually sad. He seems like a nice guy who was saddled with expectations he never deserved.  For any other franchise, Marvin is just another tale of draft bust-ness, but for us - it's symptomatic of the failed ASG administration.  It's not that we don't make mistakes - it's that we compound them. Drafting Marvin was a mistake.  Drafting Shelden after him was a catastrophe.  Re-upping Marvin was a George Bush double down.  That's what hurts.

He's just been average before now, so to go to subpar is borderline depressing. I guess the victory is that all that 'core' talk has done a 'remove Marvin, add Jeff' 180 that seems to make more sense for the direction of the franchise.  Yes, we need a small forward, but not at that cost for that effort. If we find a buyer, it's time to cut bait.

HAWKS SOLD! Hope is restored!!!

More details, a recap of the year, and a recap of the ASG era is forthcoming!!!! My blog career has just been revived.

ESPN The Mag quotes your favorite blog

So, just when you wonder whether or not anyone hears your voice..you see this. Check out the link on ajc.com or if you're an ESPN.com insider, click here (or subscriber of ESPN The Mag - you can see it in print or on your iPad).

Mama, your boy done made it...

Honesty Corner's 5 Truths: Vol. 11

We'll be providing a complete Year In Review once the NBA Finals are over, but for now - here's some truths to tide you over - mostly dedicated to the news that Rick Sund will continue to be our GM...

Disclaimer: As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last.  Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building).

Truth 1. Jeff Teague needs to keep his nose clean.

There will be a report tomorrow on the Today Show discussing his role in an alleged sexual assault. Now, I will let the legal system determine how much truth there is to this, but I will say this to Mr. Jeff Teague.  There were already rumors about your lack of dedication to your craft early this season and let's just say - if you know who your coach is (and will likely be next year), then we'd advise you to stay on the narrow path of goodness.  Primarily because as a human, that's just what you should do, but also because of the fact that you know it takes very little to get Larry Drew to put you back on the bench (and if you were actually involved in a sexual assault, then you are dead to me.)

(Let me find out this girl is affiliated with Larry Drew or his circle in any way and the season long quest for what really is happening is solved.)

Truth 2. Consistent Inconsistency = Player Movement.
 

I'm going to spend more time during the offseason proposing the right changes for the Atlanta Hawks, but I'll just reiterate what I've been saying for the past 2 offseasons and that's that - short of new owners, a new GM, and a new coach - the players have to change. We'll talk about who at a later date, but I think it's pretty clear when watching the remaining teams in NBA playoffs and you can see a marked difference between the Hawks and those teams.  The Hawks do not look like a team, but instead a group of individuals playing for the same organization.  There are pockets of fire and energy, but outside of that - Joe, Al, and Josh do not look like they are on the same page and it's 4 years in on this journey.  If you can't put it together in 4 years (while the Heat were able to get on a page in half a season), then you probably are never going to get on the same page.  

We have watched the Hawks be consistently inconsistent for over 2 years and now, it's time to make moves.  We know that the fan base is leery of moves due to our track record with trading our assets, but this isn't a time for timid, passive management. If we want to win, bold and aggressive moves must be made.  The time is now (or whenever the CBA says so).

Truth 3. Year In Review Preview (The Pluses).

So, let's make a list of the things that were positive this year.

1.    Damian Wilkins - Anytime you can sign someone off the street and they can contribute in any way.  That's a win.

2.    Jeff Teague’s Playoff Performance – We have no idea if it’s transferrable to the regular season and is sustainable over the rest of his career, but for the offseason – the Hawks and its fans can finally settle on the idea that they have a point guard who can contribute on offense and DEFENSE. 

3.    Al Horford – Playoffs excepted, Al had his best year yet.  He’s deadly with the pick and pop. We won’t discuss whether this is enough to move the Hawks forward, but for the season – it’s hard to say All Star and 3^rd team All NBA are negatives.

4.    Zaza Pachulia – Simply put, when he played consistent minutes, he played fairly well.  Every team needs a Zaza.

Truth 4. Year In Review Preview (The Negatives).

So, let's make a list of the things that were negative this year.

1.    Player Development – For Jeff Teague and Zaza Pachulia (and Damian Wilkins upon the revelation that Marvin Williams has regressed tremendously) to not receive consistent minutes for this team, just continues the poor use of the meager assets at our coach’s hands.

2.    Joe Johnson – Yes, he made the All Star game. No, he didn’t get one vote for All NBA. To be one of the top paid players in the league and to only have about 3-4 special games in an entire season and to decline in almost every category says – epic fail. 

3.    Marvin Williams – He just regressed to the point that he was usable in the biggest games in recent Atlanta Hawk history. You can blame Billy Knight for drafting him, but isn’t it worst if you re-sign him and he provides you less than during his formative years.

4.    The Bench – When Damian Wilkins is your coup signing, you’ve failed to bring much needed help to a bench that consisted of little used Teague, sometimes used Zaza, and over used Jamal. 

5.    Regular Season – When you lose 9 more games than the year before with the same cast and winning a 1^st round series that you have won the last 2 years sounds like success, then you really had a bad regular season.  Simply put, the fact that you played hard in the 2^nd round is looked at as progress sends the signal that you really didn’t put forth a regular season’s worth of professional efforts.

Truth 5. Billy Knight runs laps around Rick Sund as a GM.

Let me preface this with another truth – I don’t want Billy Knight back as the GM for the Atlanta Hawks, but I’ve written this before and after seeing that Rick Sund was given an extension – I figure it’s time to try to understand once again why people think Rick Sund has provided this team with assets to make us viable contenders. The Sund era is much closer to rivaling the Babcock era than coming close to the star-crossed Knight era.

Let’s recount what happened during the 2003-2008 tenure of Billy Knight.  He did the following:

·         Positives:

o   Dismantled a team that was last in attendance, at the salary cap limit, and devoid of draft picks due to Pete Babcock (the players he had to get rid of were – Abdur-Rahim, Terrell Brandon, Alan Henderson, Theo Ratliff, Jason Terry (who we could have kept, but he signed a $8M/yr contract that we matched and wasn’t worth that), Al Harrington, Antoine Walker.

o   Acquired 4 additional first round picks and 1 second round draft over his tenure

o   Drafted the following NBA players (Josh Smith, Al Horford, Boris Diaw, Josh Childress)

o   Signed or traded for Joe Johnson, Zaza Pachulia, Mike Bibby

o   Attendance increased from last to 20^th (not huge, but it’s positive)

o   Rumored to have had a deal for Amare Stoudamire (ASG intervened)

o   Attempted to fire Mike Woodson

o   Had the finest wife of any GM I’ve ever met

·         Negatives:

o   Drafted Shelden Williams, Acie Law, and Marvin Williams (though my sources have continually said that he wanted to draft Deron Williams, ASG wanted Marvin Williams)

o   Signed Speedy Claxton

o   Got little value out of our 2^nd round picks

o   Too much love for Mario West

o   Had the worst haircut in the NBA

The Rick Sund tenure includes the following:

·         Positives:

o   Traded for Jamal Crawford (though this is a small positive since there was no signing that brought defensive talent to compliment Jamal’s offense)

o   Signed Damian Wilkins and Flip Murray for cheap (I’m reaching here)

o   Re-signed Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Zaza Pachulia to market friendly contracts

o   Drafted Jeff Teague (conditional to whether he gets to play)

·         Negatives:

o   Drafted Jordan Crawford

o   Sold 1^st round draft pick & getting no value out of 2^nd round draft picks

o   Resigned Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, and Maurice Evans to cap killing contracts

o   Traded away 1^st round draft pick and Jordan Crawford for Kirk Hinrich (further muddying our cap situation)

o   Poor cap management

o   Hired the backup of the guy he fired

o   No use of the D League for players who need seasoning.

o   Started falling back in attendance to 22^nd

o   Signed Joe Smith, Jason Collins, Josh Powell, Randolph Morris, & Etan Thomas to all be back up big men (did I mention that we sold a 1^st round draft pick while signing these guys?)

So, explain to me why I should want Rick Sund to continue to lead the franchise.  The only thing that Sund didn’t do is make the big mistake (Shelden) and the perceived mistake (or what I call – taking the bullet for his bosses on Chris Paul or Deron Williams), but he did take this franchise and make a relatively large jump in viability that we haven’t seen from Sund’s tenure.  In fact, we’re regressing and we have few assets to even make any changes.  Think about this – we have $3M remaining to sign 6 players for next season. He basically bet the farm on the core and I don’t know one fan who believes in the entire core any longer, so why again are we spending any time on Knight? Shoot, as far as I’m concerned, Knight has proven qualifications of cleaning up the messes that guys like Sund make.  Again, NO – I don’t want Knight back because he presided over two franchise changing picks and he has to be accountable for that, but on the Josh Smith pick ALONE – he’s done more for the Atlanta Hawks than Rick Sund could dream about. Knight in a KO!!!

And with that note, that's this week's 5 Truths....agree or disagree if you must, but if it's the Honesty Corner, then it can't be lies.  See you in the comments...